Brewers at Pirates
Last play · Nick Yorke strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates0%
MIL 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 2 – 0 PIT
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Bauers homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. William Contreras scores. (inning 4) — -26% Brewers
9Oneil Cruz grounds out sharply, second baseman Brice Turang to first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd.4–1
8Jackson Chourio homers (19) on a fly ball to left field. Sal Frelick scores.4–0
4Jake Bauers homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. William Contreras scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
