Nationals at Cubs
Last play · Willi Castro flies out to center fielder Jacob Young.
Win probability
Cubs0%
WSH 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 2 – 1 CHC
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+210 / -255
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cubs favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daylen Lile homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 4) — -20% Nationals
4Daylen Lile homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
2Carson Kelly grounds out softly, third baseman Brady House to first baseman Josh Bell. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–1
1Jorge Alfaro singles on a line drive to right fielder Willi Castro. CJ Abrams scores. James Wood to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
