Mets at Reds
Last play · Pete Alonso strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds100%
NYM 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 4 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Sal Stewart homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Spencer Steer scores. (inning 2) — +20% Reds
9Brandon Nimmo strikes out swinging.3–6
7Elly De La Cruz walks. Jose Trevino scores. Matt McLain to 3rd. TJ Friedl to 2nd.2–6
7TJ Friedl singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Juan Soto. Spencer Steer scores. Jose Trevino to 3rd. Matt McLain to 2nd.2–5
7Jared Young homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.2–4
4Austin Hays homers (14) on a fly ball to left field.1–4
3Matt McLain homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.1–3
3Brandon Nimmo out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Austin Hays. Cedric Mullins scores.1–2
2Sal Stewart homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Spencer Steer scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
