Blue Jays at Yankees
Last play · Alejandro Kirk strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Yankees100%
TOR 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 1 – 2 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Yankees favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Isiah Kiner-Falefa grounds into a force out, shortstop Anthony Volpe to second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. Bo Bichette scores. Nathan Lukes out at 2nd. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 1st. (inning 4) — -12% Blue Jays
6Austin Wells out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Jasson Domínguez scores. Anthony Volpe to 3rd.1–3
4Isiah Kiner-Falefa grounds into a force out, shortstop Anthony Volpe to second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. Bo Bichette scores. Nathan Lukes out at 2nd. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 1st.1–2
2Austin Wells out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Addison Barger. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.0–2
2Jasson Domínguez singles on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Cody Bellinger scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
