Twins at Royals
MIN2–
KC11Last play · James Outman flies out to left fielder Michael Massey.
Win probability
Royals100%
MIN 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 2 – 9 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Royals favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Salvador Perez homers (25) on a fly ball to left center field. Maikel Garcia scores. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. (inning 1) — +15% Royals
6Carter Jensen grounds out, second baseman Luke Keaschall to first baseman Edouard Julien. Jac Caglianone scores. Nick Loftin to 3rd.2–11
6Nick Loftin doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder James Outman. Adam Frazier scores. Jac Caglianone to 3rd.2–10
4Carter Jensen doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Jac Caglianone scores.2–9
3Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a ground ball to left fielder James Outman. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Maikel Garcia to 3rd.2–8
3Maikel Garcia singles on a ground ball to left fielder James Outman. Kyle Isbel scores. Mike Yastrzemski to 2nd.2–7
3Kyle Isbel doubles (16) on a line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Nick Loftin scores.2–6
3Luke Keaschall grounds out, shortstop Maikel Garcia to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Byron Buxton scores.2–5
3Byron Buxton triples (7) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. James Outman scores.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.