Phillies at Marlins
Last play · Troy Johnston strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Marlins0%
PHI 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 4 – 2 MIA
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-160 / +135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Marlins favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Harper homers (24) on a fly ball to center field. Kyle Schwarber scores. (inning 1) — -21% Phillies
4Javier Sanoja singles on a ground ball to shortstop Edmundo Sosa. Heriberto Hernández scores. Eric Wagaman to 3rd.4–2
4Eric Wagaman doubles (25) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Agustín Ramírez scores. Heriberto Hernández to 3rd.4–1
4Bryson Stott out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Harrison Bader scores.4–0
4Harrison Bader singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Brandon Marsh scores.3–0
1Bryce Harper homers (24) on a fly ball to center field. Kyle Schwarber scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
