Astros at Rangers
Last play · Jonah Heim strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rangers0%
HOU 100%TEX 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 2 – 0 TEX
Astros led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rangers favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Walker homers (22) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 3) — -18% Astros
9Ramón Urías singles on a ground ball to shortstop Josh Smith. Jeremy Peña scores. Mauricio Dubón to 2nd.11–0
9Mauricio Dubón singles on a line drive to right fielder Dustin Harris. Yainer Diaz scores. Jake Meyers scores. Jeremy Peña to 3rd.10–0
9Yainer Diaz singles on a line drive to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Cam Smith scores. Taylor Trammell scores.8–0
8Yordan Alvarez singles on a line drive to center fielder Wyatt Langford. Christian Walker scores. Jake Meyers to 2nd.6–0
8Jake Meyers singles on a line drive to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Taylor Trammell scores. Christian Walker to 3rd.5–0
8Christian Walker doubles (22) on a line drive to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Cam Smith scores. Victor Caratini to 3rd.4–0
6Yainer Diaz doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Dustin Harris. Carlos Correa scores. Victor Caratini to 3rd.3–0
5Yordan Alvarez homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
