Padres at Rockies
SD10–
COL8Last play · Brenton Doyle flies out to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.
Win probability
Rockies0%
SD 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 10 – 2 COL
Padres led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+2.5
Moneyline
reference-255 / +210
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rockies favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Freddy Fermin doubles (13) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Jordan Beck. Ramón Laureano scores. Jackson Merrill scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd. (inning 2) — -18% Padres
9Mickey Moniak homers (19) on a fly ball to right center field.10–8
7Jordan Beck homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Tyler Freeman scores. Mickey Moniak scores.10–7
7Mickey Moniak singles on a ground ball to center fielder Bryce Johnson. Warming Bernabel scores. Tyler Freeman to 3rd.10–4
6Hunter Goodman homers (29) on a fly ball to left field.10–3
5Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to left fielder Jordan Beck. Freddy Fermin scores. Mason McCoy scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 2nd.10–2
5Mason McCoy singles on a ground ball to third baseman Kyle Karros. Jake Cronenworth scores. Freddy Fermin to 2nd.8–2
5Freddy Fermin singles on a line drive to left fielder Jordan Beck. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Jake Cronenworth to 3rd.7–2
2Warming Bernabel singles on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Brenton Doyle scores. Ezequiel Tovar to 2nd.6–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.