Mets at Reds
Last play · Mets challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Starling Marte grounds into a double play, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to second baseman Matt McLain to first baseman Spencer Steer. Brandon Nimmo out at 2nd. Starling Marte out at 1st.
Win probability
Reds100%
NYM 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 1 CIN
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Reds favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Elly De La Cruz doubles (29) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Noelvi Marte scores. Elly De La Cruz to 3rd. (inning 6) — +19% Reds
9Juan Soto homers (38) on a line drive to right center field.2–3
6Austin Hays singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Elly De La Cruz scores.1–3
6Elly De La Cruz doubles (29) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Noelvi Marte scores. Elly De La Cruz to 3rd.1–2
4Austin Hays out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Noelvi Marte scores.1–1
3Brett Baty homers (16) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
