Mariners at Braves
Last play · Jake Fraley strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Braves0%
SEA 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 10 – 1 ATL
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Julio Rodríguez reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Nacho Alvarez Jr. Victor Robles scores. Randy Arozarena scores. Cal Raleigh scores. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd. Fielding error by third baseman Nacho Alvarez Jr. (inning 3) — -26% Mariners
9Michael Harris II out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Ozzie Albies scores.18–2
9Eugenio Suárez homers (45) on a fly ball to left field. Dominic Canzone scores.18–1
9Cal Raleigh homers (53) on a fly ball to center field. Victor Robles scores. Randy Arozarena scores.16–1
9Randy Arozarena singles on a line drive to right fielder Jake Fraley. Harry Ford scores. Victor Robles to 3rd.13–1
6Eugenio Suárez homers (44) on a fly ball to left field.11–1
4Jurickson Profar homers (13) on a fly ball to right field.10–1
4Jorge Polanco out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Michael Harris II. Julio Rodríguez scores.10–0
3Randy Arozarena singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Mitch Garver scores. J.P. Crawford scores.9–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
