Phillies at Marlins
Last play · Bryce Harper grounds out, second baseman Xavier Edwards to first baseman Eric Wagaman.
Win probability
Marlins100%
PHI 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 4 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 44.7% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Marlins favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Otto Lopez homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Jakob Marsee scores. Agustín Ramírez scores. (inning 1) — +24% Marlins
9Kyle Schwarber singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Joey Wiemer. Max Kepler scores. J.T. Realmuto to 3rd.4–5
7Otto Lopez homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.3–5
6Brandon Marsh singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Kyle Schwarber scores.3–4
6Trea Turner homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.2–4
2Nick Castellanos triples (2) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Brandon Marsh scores.1–4
1Maximo Acosta singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brandon Marsh. Heriberto Hernández scores. Troy Johnston to 3rd. Maximo Acosta to 2nd. Throwing error by center fielder Brandon Marsh.0–4
1Otto Lopez homers (13) on a fly ball to left field. Jakob Marsee scores. Agustín Ramírez scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
