Red Sox at D-backs
Last play · Carlos Narváez flies out to center fielder Alek Thomas.
Win probability
D-backs100%
BOS 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 4 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
D-backs favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake McCarthy reaches on a fielder's choice. Adrian Del Castillo scores. James McCann scores. Tyler Locklear to 3rd. Jake McCarthy to 2nd. Fielding error by shortstop Trevor Story. (inning 2) — +20% D-backs
7Blaze Alexander out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Ketel Marte scores. Corbin Carroll to 3rd.1–5
4Jake McCarthy singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. James McCann scores. Tyler Locklear to 2nd.1–4
3Masataka Yoshida singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. Nate Eaton scores.1–3
2Geraldo Perdomo out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nate Eaton. Tyler Locklear scores.0–3
2Jake McCarthy reaches on a fielder's choice. Adrian Del Castillo scores. James McCann scores. Tyler Locklear to 3rd. Jake McCarthy to 2nd. Fielding error by shortstop Trevor Story.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
