Blue Jays at Yankees
Last play · Myles Straw grounds out, third baseman Ryan McMahon to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.
Win probability
Yankees100%
TOR 0%NYY 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 3 – 4 NYY
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Yankees favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ben Rice homers (23) on a fly ball to right center field. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger scores. (inning 1) — +24% Yankees
3Cody Bellinger doubles (24) on a line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Aaron Judge scores.3–4
3Vladimir Guerrero Jr. doubles (33) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. George Springer scores. Davis Schneider to 3rd.3–3
2Nathan Lukes out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Aaron Judge. Ernie Clement scores.2–3
2Isiah Kiner-Falefa singles on a ground ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Alejandro Kirk scores. Ernie Clement to 3rd.1–3
1Ben Rice homers (23) on a fly ball to right center field. Aaron Judge scores. Cody Bellinger scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
