Twins at Royals
Last play · Mike Yastrzemski flies out to center fielder James Outman.
Win probability
Royals0%
MIN 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 3 – 0 KC
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Royals favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kody Clemens homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Matt Wallner scores. (inning 4) — -21% Twins
7Matt Wallner walks. Edouard Julien scores. Brooks Lee to 3rd. Austin Martin to 2nd.5–1
6Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a ground ball to left fielder Austin Martin. Maikel Garcia scores.4–1
6Pitcher Angel Zerpa picks off Royce Lewis at 2nd on throw to shortstop Maikel Garcia.4–0
4Kody Clemens homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Matt Wallner scores.3–0
1Byron Buxton homers (30) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
