Brewers at Pirates
Last play · Joey Bart grounds out, shortstop Joey Ortiz to first baseman Andrew Vaughn.
Win probability
Pirates0%
MIL 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 9 – 1 PIT
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Bauers doubles (6) on a ground ball to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Brice Turang scores. Isaac Collins scores. William Contreras to 3rd. (inning 1) — -21% Brewers
8Cam Devanney doubles (1) on a line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Jihwan Bae scores.10–2
7Danny Jansen grounds out, third baseman Jared Triolo to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Jake Bauers scores. Andrew Vaughn to 3rd. Blake Perkins to 2nd.10–1
3Brice Turang singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Blake Perkins scores. Joey Ortiz scores.9–1
3Brewers challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Joey Ortiz grounds into a force out, second baseman Nick Gonzales to shortstop Liover Peguero. Andrew Vaughn scores. Blake Perkins to 3rd. Danny Jansen out at 2nd. Joey Ortiz to 1st.7–1
3Blake Perkins doubles (6) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Jihwan Bae. Jake Bauers scores. Andrew Vaughn to 3rd.6–1
2Liover Peguero singles on a line drive to center fielder Blake Perkins, deflected by left fielder Isaac Collins. Andrew McCutchen scores.5–1
2Isaac Collins reaches on a fielder's choice out, first baseman Spencer Horwitz to catcher Joey Bart. Joey Ortiz out at home.5–0
1Caleb Durbin grounds into a double play, second baseman Nick Gonzales to shortstop Liover Peguero to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Jake Bauers scores. Andrew Vaughn out at 2nd. Caleb Durbin out at 1st.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
