Astros at Rangers
Last play · Jake Meyers grounds out, third baseman Josh Jung to first baseman Jake Burger.
Win probability
Rangers100%
HOU 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 1 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rangers favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Jung doubles (17) on a line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Cody Freeman scores. (inning 6) — +19% Rangers
7Yainer Diaz grounds out, third baseman Josh Jung to first baseman Jake Burger. Christian Walker scores.2–4
6Jake Burger homers (14) on a fly ball to right center field. Josh Jung scores.1–4
6Josh Jung doubles (17) on a line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Cody Freeman scores.1–2
6Jeremy Peña singles on a ground ball to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Mauricio Dubón scores.1–1
2Jonah Heim strikes out swinging. Dylan Moore scores. Jonah Heim advances to 1st, on a throwing error by catcher Yainer Diaz.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
