Padres at Rockies
Last play · Yanquiel Fernández grounds out sharply to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Rockies0%
SD 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 8 – 1 COL
Padres led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+2.5
Moneyline
reference-255 / +210
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rockies favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (23) on a fly ball to left center field. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 1) — -21% Padres
5Freddy Fermin walks. Jackson Merrill scores. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd. Wild pitch by pitcher Antonio Senzatela.8–1
5Ramón Laureano homers (23) on a fly ball to left center field.7–1
4Manny Machado walks. Freddy Fermin scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd. Luis Arraez to 2nd.6–1
4Freddy Fermin singles on a line drive to center fielder Mickey Moniak. Jake Cronenworth scores.5–1
4Gavin Sheets homers (19) on a fly ball to right field.4–1
3Ezequiel Tovar singles on a line drive to left fielder Ramón Laureano. Orlando Arcia scores.3–1
2Jackson Merrill homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.3–0
1Manny Machado homers (23) on a fly ball to left center field. Luis Arraez scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
