Giants at Cardinals
Last play · Patrick Bailey grounds into a double play, second baseman Thomas Saggese to shortstop Masyn Winn to first baseman Nolan Gorman. Casey Schmitt out at 2nd. Patrick Bailey out at 1st.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
SF 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 0 – 4 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Cardinals favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lars Nootbaar singles on a line drive to center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Jordan Walker scores. Nathan Church to 3rd. José Fermín to 2nd. (inning 5) — +15% Cardinals
6Matt Chapman singles on a line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Rafael Devers scores. Willy Adames to 3rd. Dominic Smith to 2nd.3–4
6Dominic Smith singles on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Andrew Knizner scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd. Willy Adames to 2nd.2–4
6Rafael Devers singles on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Drew Gilbert scores. Andrew Knizner to 2nd.1–4
5Masyn Winn grounds into a double play, second baseman Casey Schmitt to shortstop Willy Adames to first baseman Dominic Smith. Lars Nootbaar scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd. Nolan Gorman out at 2nd. Masyn Winn out at 1st.0–4
5Nolan Gorman walks. José Fermín scores. Lars Nootbaar to 3rd. Iván Herrera to 2nd.0–3
5Iván Herrera singles on a ground ball to right fielder Drew Gilbert. Nathan Church scores. José Fermín to 3rd. Lars Nootbaar to 2nd.0–2
5Lars Nootbaar singles on a line drive to center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Jordan Walker scores. Nathan Church to 3rd. José Fermín to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
