Red Sox at D-backs
Last play · Jordan Lawlar strikes out swinging.
Win probability
D-backs0%
BOS 100%AZ 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 2 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
D-backs favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Sogard doubles (6) on a line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. Romy Gonzalez scores. Nate Eaton scores. (inning 9) — -41% Red Sox
9Carlos Narváez singles on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Nick Sogard scores.7–4
9Nick Sogard doubles (6) on a line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. Romy Gonzalez scores. Nate Eaton scores.6–4
7Jordan Lawlar singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Alek Thomas scores. Tyler Locklear to 2nd.4–4
7Connor Wong reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Jordan Lawlar. Nathaniel Lowe scores. David Hamilton scores. Connor Wong to 2nd.4–3
7David Hamilton singles on a line drive to center fielder Alek Thomas. Trevor Story scores. Nathaniel Lowe to 3rd.2–3
6Gabriel Moreno doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Rob Refsnyder. Corbin Carroll scores.1–3
4Blaze Alexander grounds out, pitcher Brayan Bello to first baseman Nathaniel Lowe.1–2
4Trevor Story singles on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Alex Bregman scores.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
