Royals at Guardians
Last play · Michael Massey strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Guardians100%
KC 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 9 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Guardians favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · José Ramírez singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Steven Kwan scores. (inning 3) — +12% Guardians
9Jac Caglianone singles on a line drive to right fielder Nolan Jones. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Tyler Tolbert scores. Luke Maile to 2nd.2–10
7Steven Kwan grounds into a force out, second baseman Michael Massey to shortstop Maikel Garcia. CJ Kayfus scores. Brayan Rocchio out at 2nd. Steven Kwan to 1st.0–10
5Daniel Schneemann grounds into a force out, second baseman Michael Massey to shortstop Maikel Garcia. Brayan Rocchio scores. Steven Kwan out at 2nd. Daniel Schneemann advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by shortstop Maikel Garcia.0–9
4Nolan Jones doubles (13) on a line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Daniel Schneemann scores. José Ramírez scores. Kyle Manzardo to 3rd.0–8
4Kyle Manzardo singles on a ground ball to second baseman Michael Massey. Steven Kwan scores. Daniel Schneemann to 3rd. José Ramírez to 2nd.0–6
4Daniel Schneemann doubles (18) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Brayan Rocchio scores. Steven Kwan to 3rd.0–5
4Brayan Rocchio doubles (15) on a line drive to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. CJ Kayfus scores.0–4
4CJ Kayfus doubles (7) on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Gabriel Arias scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
