Reds at Padres
Last play · Fernando Tatis Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Austin Hays. Jake Cronenworth scores.
Win probability
Padres100%
CIN 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 0 SD
Reds led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+160 / -190
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill triples (5) on a fly ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte, deflected by center fielder TJ Friedl. Gavin Sheets scores. Ramón Laureano scores. (inning 6) — +31% Padres
10Fernando Tatis Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Austin Hays. Jake Cronenworth scores.3–4
6Jackson Merrill triples (5) on a fly ball to right fielder Noelvi Marte, deflected by center fielder TJ Friedl. Gavin Sheets scores. Ramón Laureano scores.3–3
6Gavin Sheets doubles (25) on a line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.3–1
6Austin Hays homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.3–0
3Elly De La Cruz singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. TJ Friedl scores.2–0
1TJ Friedl homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
