Mets at Phillies
Last play · Francisco Alvarez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
NYM 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 1 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.T. Realmuto lines out sharply to left fielder Starling Marte. (inning 8) — +12% Phillies
2Nick Castellanos singles on a ground ball to right fielder Juan Soto. Max Kepler scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
