Mets at Phillies
Last play · Francisco Lindor strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
NYM 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 4 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Castellanos doubles (26) on a fly ball to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Bryce Harper scores. J.T. Realmuto scores. (inning 1) — +17% Phillies
9Jeff McNeil singles on a line drive to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Starling Marte scores. Francisco Alvarez to 3rd.3–9
8Harrison Bader singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Bryson Stott scores. Otto Kemp to 2nd.2–9
8Bryson Stott singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Juan Soto. Edmundo Sosa scores.2–8
8Juan Soto singles on a line drive to left fielder Weston Wilson. Jose Siri scores.2–7
7Kyle Schwarber homers (50) on a fly ball to center field. Bryson Stott scores. Harrison Bader scores.1–7
7Mark Vientos homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field.1–4
2Harrison Bader homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.0–4
2Otto Kemp homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
