Royals at Guardians
Last play · Salvador Perez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Guardians100%
KC 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 2 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Guardians favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · David Fry doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randal Grichuk. José Ramírez scores. (inning 4) — +9% Guardians
4David Fry doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randal Grichuk. José Ramírez scores.0–2
1José Ramírez homers (28) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
