Cubs at Braves
Last play · Ha-Seong Kim strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Braves0%
CHC 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 2 – 1 ATL
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dansby Swanson walks. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd. Willi Castro to 2nd. (inning 8) — -13% Cubs
8Matt Shaw singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Nico Hoerner scores. Willi Castro scores. Dansby Swanson scores. Matt Shaw to 2nd. Throwing error by center fielder Michael Harris II.6–1
8Dansby Swanson walks. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd. Willi Castro to 2nd.3–1
3Jurickson Profar singles on a line drive to right fielder Willi Castro. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.2–1
3Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a fly ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Ian Happ scores. Seiya Suzuki to 2nd.2–0
1Pete Crow-Armstrong out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jake Fraley. Michael Busch scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
