Pirates at Orioles
Last play · Samuel Basallo singles on a fly ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Gunnar Henderson scores. Ryan Mountcastle to 3rd. Colton Cowser to 2nd.
Win probability
Orioles100%
PIT 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 1 BAL
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tommy Pham homers (9) on a line drive to left center field. (inning 9) — -41% Pirates
11Samuel Basallo singles on a fly ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Gunnar Henderson scores. Ryan Mountcastle to 3rd. Colton Cowser to 2nd.2–3
9Tommy Pham homers (9) on a line drive to left center field.2–2
6Jeremiah Jackson homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
1Ryan Mountcastle out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Jackson Holliday scores.1–1
1Andrew McCutchen singles on a ground ball to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Spencer Horwitz scores. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
