Cardinals at Mariners
STL2–
SEA4Last play · Nolan Gorman strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners100%
STL 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 2 – 0 SEA
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+165 / -200
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mariners favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mariners challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Mariners challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Josh Naylor doubles (25) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Randy Arozarena scores. Cal Raleigh scores. Julio Rodríguez out at home on the throw, center fielder Victor Scott II to shortstop Masyn Winn to catcher Jimmy Crooks. (inning 6) — +34% Mariners
6Jorge Polanco out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jordan Walker. Josh Naylor scores.2–4
6Mariners challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Mariners challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Josh Naylor doubles (25) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Randy Arozarena scores. Cal Raleigh scores. Julio Rodríguez out at home on the throw, center fielder Victor Scott II to shortstop Masyn Winn to catcher Jimmy Crooks.2–3
6Julio Rodríguez singles on a line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar, deflected by shortstop Masyn Winn. Leo Rivas scores. Randy Arozarena to 3rd. Cal Raleigh to 2nd.2–1
4Alec Burleson homers (17) on a fly ball to center field. Iván Herrera scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.