D-backs at Giants
Last play · Ketel Marte grounds out, second baseman Christian Koss to first baseman Dominic Smith.
Win probability
Giants100%
AZ 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 4 – 4 SF
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Giants favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake McCarthy triples (4) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Drew Gilbert. Gabriel Moreno scores. Alek Thomas scores. Ildemaro Vargas scores. (inning 2) — -33% D-backs
8Patrick Bailey homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.5–11
8Gabriel Moreno homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.5–10
7Matt Chapman homers (21) on a line drive to left center field.4–10
6Heliot Ramos homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field. Christian Koss scores.4–9
6Patrick Bailey out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Jung Hoo Lee scores.4–7
6Christian Koss doubles (7) on a ground ball to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Matt Chapman scores. Luis Matos scores. Jung Hoo Lee to 3rd.4–6
3Dominic Smith homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Rafael Devers scores.4–4
3Blaze Alexander singles on a ground ball to right fielder Drew Gilbert. Ketel Marte scores. Gabriel Moreno to 3rd. Blaze Alexander to 2nd.4–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
