Nationals at Marlins
Last play · Agustín Ramírez grounds out, shortstop CJ Abrams to first baseman Josh Bell.
Win probability
Marlins0%
WSH 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 6 – 1 MIA
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Marlins favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Bell homers (20) on a fly ball to right center field. CJ Abrams scores. James Wood scores. (inning 1) — -28% Nationals
9Xavier Edwards singles on a ground ball to first baseman Josh Bell. Victor Mesa Jr. scores. Javier Sanoja to 3rd.7–5
9Victor Mesa Jr. doubles (2) on a fly ball to left fielder James Wood. Heriberto Hernández scores. Liam Hicks scores.7–4
8Agustín Ramírez singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Dylan Crews. Joey Wiemer scores. Maximo Acosta to 3rd. Xavier Edwards to 2nd.7–2
6Josh Bell out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Joey Wiemer. CJ Abrams scores.7–1
5Daylen Lile homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.6–1
4James Wood grounds into a force out, shortstop Otto Lopez to second baseman Xavier Edwards. Brady House scores. Dylan Crews to 3rd. CJ Abrams out at 2nd. James Wood to 1st.5–1
4Jacob Young out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Jorge Alfaro scores.4–1
2Joey Wiemer homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
