D-backs at Giants
Last play · Ketel Marte grounds out, second baseman Casey Schmitt to first baseman Dominic Smith.
Win probability
Giants100%
AZ 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 2 – 5 SF
Giants led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Giants favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willy Adames homers (28) on a fly ball to left center field. Heliot Ramos scores. Rafael Devers scores. (inning 1) — +24% Giants
6Ildemaro Vargas singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Blaze Alexander to 3rd. Ildemaro Vargas to 2nd.3–5
5Patrick Bailey homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.2–5
5Jorge Barrosa out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Drew Gilbert. Jordan Lawlar scores.2–4
5Jordan Lawlar doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. Tim Tawa scores.1–4
4Casey Schmitt out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Matt Chapman scores.0–4
1Willy Adames homers (28) on a fly ball to left center field. Heliot Ramos scores. Rafael Devers scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
