Reds at Padres
Last play · Jackson Merrill strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
CIN 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 2 – 2 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Stephenson homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Gavin Lux scores. (inning 9) — -41% Reds
9Tyler Stephenson homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Gavin Lux scores.4–2
5Jake Cronenworth out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Austin Hays. Jackson Merrill scores.2–2
5Jackson Merrill triples (6) on a line drive to right fielder Will Benson. Ramón Laureano scores.2–1
2Will Benson hits a home run (10).2–0
1Sal Stewart homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
