Pirates at Orioles
Last play · Dylan Beavers singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Jorge Mateo scores. Colton Cowser to 3rd. Daniel Johnson to 2nd.
Win probability
Orioles100%
PIT 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 0 BAL
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 43.4% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Holliday singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jihwan Bae. Colton Cowser scores. Daniel Johnson to 2nd. (inning 8) — +32% Orioles
10Dylan Beavers singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Jorge Mateo scores. Colton Cowser to 3rd. Daniel Johnson to 2nd.1–2
8Jackson Holliday singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jihwan Bae. Colton Cowser scores. Daniel Johnson to 2nd.1–1
4Spencer Horwitz homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
