Nationals at Marlins
Last play · Robert Hassell III called out on strikes.
Win probability
Marlins100%
WSH 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 0 MIA
Nationals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Marlins favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eric Wagaman singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Otto Lopez scores. Agustín Ramírez to 3rd. (inning 6) — +19% Marlins
8Xavier Edwards homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Joey Wiemer scores. Victor Mesa Jr. scores.3–8
7Otto Lopez singles on a line drive to center fielder Robert Hassell III. Xavier Edwards scores. Jakob Marsee to 2nd.3–5
6Eric Wagaman singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Otto Lopez scores. Agustín Ramírez to 3rd.3–4
6Agustín Ramírez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Jakob Marsee scores. Otto Lopez to 2nd.3–3
6Nationals challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Otto Lopez reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Luis García Jr. Xavier Edwards scores. Jakob Marsee to 2nd.3–2
6Jakob Marsee singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Crews. Maximo Acosta scores. Xavier Edwards to 3rd. Fielding error by right fielder Dylan Crews.3–1
6Luis García Jr. singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Joey Wiemer. Daylen Lile scores.3–0
6Daylen Lile triples (9) on a line drive to right fielder Joey Wiemer. Josh Bell scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
