Astros at Blue Jays
Last play · Isiah Kiner-Falefa called out on strikes.
Win probability
Blue Jays0%
HOU 100%TOR 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 0 TOR
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yainer Diaz homers (19) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 9) — -34% Astros
9Yainer Diaz homers (19) on a fly ball to left center field.3–2
8Nathan Lukes singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Myles Straw scores. Andrés Giménez to 3rd.2–2
8Andrés Giménez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Myles Straw to 3rd.2–1
6Carlos Correa homers (13) on a line drive to left field.2–0
2Yainer Diaz doubles (22) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Jesús Sánchez scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
