Mets at Phillies
Last play · Juan Soto flies out sharply to center fielder Harrison Bader.
Win probability
Phillies100%
NYM 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 4 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Starling Marte singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Juan Soto scores. Pete Alonso to 2nd. (inning 4) — -12% Mets
9Brett Baty singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Harrison Bader, deflected by shortstop Bryson Stott. Hayden Senger scores. Cedric Mullins to 3rd.3–11
8Donovan Walton grounds out, second baseman Brett Baty to first baseman Pete Alonso. Otto Kemp scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd.2–11
8Max Kepler homers (16) on a fly ball to right field.2–10
8Juan Soto homers (39) on a fly ball to right field.2–9
7Bryce Harper homers (25) on a fly ball to right field.1–9
6Otto Kemp out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Juan Soto. Brandon Marsh scores.1–8
6Max Kepler singles on a line drive to center fielder Jose Siri. Bryce Harper scores. J.T. Realmuto scores. Brandon Marsh to 3rd.1–7
6Brandon Marsh singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Harrison Bader scores. Bryce Harper to 3rd. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
