Royals at Guardians
Last play · Steven Kwan lines out to left fielder Randal Grichuk.
Win probability
Guardians0%
KC 100%CLE 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 3 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Guardians favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Loftin singles on a line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Tyler Tolbert scores. Nick Loftin to 3rd. Nick Loftin advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by catcher Bo Naylor. (inning 7) — -22% Royals
7Maikel Garcia doubles (36) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Nick Loftin scores.4–3
7Nick Loftin singles on a line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Tyler Tolbert scores. Nick Loftin to 3rd. Nick Loftin advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by catcher Bo Naylor.3–3
4Bo Naylor singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Angel Martínez scores. Brayan Rocchio to 3rd.2–3
3Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a ground ball to right fielder CJ Kayfus. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.2–2
1Kyle Manzardo homers (26) on a fly ball to right field. George Valera scores.1–2
1Jonathan India singles on a ground ball to second baseman Daniel Schneemann. Maikel Garcia scores. Vinnie Pasquantino to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
