Cubs at Braves
Last play · Michael Harris II grounds out, third baseman Matt Shaw to first baseman Carlos Santana.
Win probability
Braves0%
CHC 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 2 ATL
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Kelly homers (17) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 4) — -16% Cubs
5Matt Olson out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Marcell Ozuna scores.3–2
5Seiya Suzuki out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Nico Hoerner scores.3–1
4Justin Turner doubles (7) on a line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Dansby Swanson scores.2–1
4Carson Kelly homers (17) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
3Nacho Alvarez Jr. doubles (12) on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Marcell Ozuna scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
