Brewers at Rangers
Last play · Jackson Chourio lines out to first baseman Jake Burger.
Win probability
Rangers100%
MIL 0%TEX 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 2 – 5 TEX
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Rangers favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Burger homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Josh Smith scores. (inning 5) — +18% Rangers
8Rowdy Tellez grounds out, second baseman Brice Turang to first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Jake Burger scores. Kyle Higashioka to 3rd. Alejandro Osuna to 2nd.3–6
6Rhys Hoskins singles on a ground ball to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Caleb Durbin scores. Danny Jansen to 2nd.3–5
5Jake Burger homers (16) on a fly ball to center field. Josh Smith scores.2–5
3Jake Burger pops out to first baseman Jake Bauers in foul territory.2–3
3Joc Pederson grounds into a force out, second baseman Brice Turang to shortstop Joey Ortiz. Michael Helman scores. Josh Smith to 3rd. Wyatt Langford out at 2nd. Joc Pederson to 1st.2–2
2Jake Burger homers (15) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
1Jackson Chourio homers (20) on a line drive to left center field.2–0
1Brice Turang homers (18) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
