Pirates at Orioles
Last play · Oneil Cruz caught stealing 2nd base, catcher Alex Jackson to second baseman Jackson Holliday.
Win probability
Orioles100%
PIT 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 2 – 2 BAL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Orioles favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dylan Beavers singles on a ground ball to second baseman Nick Gonzales. Jackson Holliday scores. Gunnar Henderson to 2nd. (inning 7) — +22% Orioles
7Dylan Beavers singles on a ground ball to second baseman Nick Gonzales. Jackson Holliday scores. Gunnar Henderson to 2nd.2–3
3Alexander Canario homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.2–2
2Coby Mayo singles on a line drive to left fielder Tommy Pham. Colton Cowser scores.1–2
1Emmanuel Rivera grounds out, second baseman Nick Gonzales to first baseman Nick Yorke. Jeremiah Jackson scores. Gunnar Henderson to 3rd.1–1
1Nick Gonzales singles on a line drive to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Jared Triolo scores. Nick Gonzales out at 2nd on the throw, left fielder Dylan Beavers to third baseman Emmanuel Rivera to second baseman Jackson Holliday to first baseman Coby Mayo.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
