Mets at Phillies
Last play · Mark Vientos strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
NYM 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 4 – 3 PHI
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Phillies favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Otto Kemp homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Nick Castellanos scores. (inning 4) — +21% Phillies
6Bryce Harper singles on a ground ball to first baseman Pete Alonso. Brandon Marsh scores. Harrison Bader to 3rd. Kyle Schwarber to 2nd.4–6
6Harrison Bader singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jeff McNeil. Otto Kemp scores. Brandon Marsh to 2nd.4–5
6Otto Kemp doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jeff McNeil. Nick Castellanos scores.4–4
5Bryce Harper doubles (31) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Juan Soto. Weston Wilson scores.4–3
4Otto Kemp homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. Nick Castellanos scores.4–2
1Starling Marte doubles (13) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Mark Vientos scores. Brandon Nimmo scores.4–0
1Brandon Nimmo singles on a line drive to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Juan Soto scores. Mark Vientos to 3rd.2–0
1Mark Vientos singles on a line drive to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Francisco Lindor scores. Juan Soto to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
