Royals at Guardians
Last play · Mike Yastrzemski flies out to right fielder Nolan Jones.
Win probability
Guardians100%
KC 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 2 – 1 CLE
Royals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Guardians favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · CJ Kayfus homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Bo Naylor scores. (inning 8) — +61% Guardians
8CJ Kayfus homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Bo Naylor scores.2–3
4José Ramírez grounds out to first baseman Salvador Perez. Steven Kwan scores.2–1
1Vinnie Pasquantino homers (30) on a fly ball to right center field. Mike Yastrzemski scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
