Astros at Blue Jays
Last play · Carlos Correa grounds out sharply to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
HOU 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 4 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Davis Schneider homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 2) — +10% Blue Jays
8Daulton Varsho singles on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Trammell. Nathan Lukes scores. Addison Barger to 2nd.0–6
8Addison Barger reaches on a fielding error by right fielder Jesús Sánchez. George Springer scores. Nathan Lukes to 2nd.0–5
4Davis Schneider out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Taylor Trammell. Daulton Varsho scores.0–4
2Davis Schneider homers (11) on a fly ball to left field.0–3
1Addison Barger doubles (29) on a fly ball to center fielder Mauricio Dubón. Nathan Lukes scores.0–2
1Nathan Lukes doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Taylor Trammell. George Springer scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
