Nationals at Marlins
Last play · Brady House strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Marlins100%
WSH 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 0 – 2 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Marlins favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eric Wagaman singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Jakob Marsee scores. (inning 1) — +9% Marlins
8Joey Wiemer out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Daylen Lile. Eric Wagaman scores.0–5
8Eric Wagaman doubles (26) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Robert Hassell III. Jakob Marsee scores. Victor Mesa Jr. scores. Eric Wagaman to 3rd. Eric Wagaman advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by shortstop CJ Abrams.0–4
1Eric Wagaman singles on a line drive to center fielder Jacob Young. Jakob Marsee scores.0–2
1Heriberto Hernández out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Daylen Lile. Xavier Edwards scores. Jakob Marsee to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
