Tigers at Marlins
Last play · Trey Sweeney grounds into a force out, fielded by second baseman Xavier Edwards. Colt Keith out at 2nd.
Win probability
Marlins100%
DET 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 1 – 5 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-200 / +165
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Marlins favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Heriberto Hernández homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — +15% Marlins
7Trey Sweeney grounds out, second baseman Xavier Edwards to first baseman Eric Wagaman.2–8
6Joey Wiemer homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Heriberto Hernández scores. Eric Wagaman scores.1–8
4Javier Sanoja doubles (19) on a fly ball to left fielder Riley Greene. Heriberto Hernández scores. Maximo Acosta scores.1–5
4Riley Greene homers (34) on a fly ball to center field.1–3
2Javier Sanoja grounds into a force out, second baseman Gleyber Torres to shortstop Trey Sweeney. Eric Wagaman scores. Maximo Acosta out at 2nd. Javier Sanoja to 1st.0–3
2Heriberto Hernández homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.0–2
1Agustín Ramírez homers (20) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
