Rockies at Padres
Last play · Jordan Beck grounds out, pitcher Robert Suarez to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn.
Win probability
Padres100%
COL 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 0 – 2 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+220 / -270
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to right fielder Mickey Moniak. Freddy Fermin scores. (inning 3) — +11% Padres
4Jackson Merrill homers (11) on a fly ball to left field.0–2
3Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to right fielder Mickey Moniak. Freddy Fermin scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
