Yankees at Red Sox
Last play · Nate Eaton strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
NYY 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 0 BOS
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Aaron Judge homers (47) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 1) — -12% Yankees
7Nate Eaton homers (1) on a fly ball to left field.4–1
7Ben Rice singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Ryan McMahon scores. Aaron Judge to 3rd. Ben Rice to 2nd.4–0
7Ryan McMahon reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman David Hamilton. José Caballero scores. Ryan McMahon to 2nd. Ryan McMahon advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by second baseman David Hamilton.3–0
3Cody Bellinger singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jarren Duran. Aaron Judge scores. Ben Rice to 3rd.2–0
1Aaron Judge homers (47) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
