Angels @ Mariners — Live Pitcher Fatigue & Win Probability

LAA6–

SEA7

Final

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R	H	E
LAA	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	6	12	2
SEA	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	7	9	0

Last play · Harry Ford out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Matthew Lugo. Jorge Polanco scores.

Win probability

Mariners100%

LAA 0%SEA 100%

First 5 (F5)

final

LAA 4 – 4 SEA

Tied through 5

Total runs

7.5

opened 8.5 ↓

fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%

Run line

-1.5

Moneyline

reference

+155 / -185

We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.

Mariners favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓

Biggest swing · Jorge Polanco doubles (23) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Josh Naylor scores. (inning 12) — +44% Mariners

12Harry Ford out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Matthew Lugo. Jorge Polanco scores.6–7

12Jorge Polanco doubles (23) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Josh Naylor scores.6–6

12Matthew Lugo singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena, deflected by shortstop J.P. Crawford. Sebastián Rivero scores. Logan Davidson to 2nd.6–5

11J.P. Crawford singles on a line drive to right fielder Matthew Lugo. Luke Raley scores.5–5

11Taylor Ward singles on a ground ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Mike Trout scores. Yoán Moncada to 2nd.5–4

5Mike Trout homers (21) on a fly ball to left center field.4–4

4Luis Rengifo grounds out, shortstop J.P. Crawford to first baseman Josh Naylor. Taylor Ward scores.3–4

4Chris Taylor out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Yoán Moncada scores. Taylor Ward to 3rd.2–4

Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.

Line score

The book's line

Win probability timeline

Scoring plays

Angels at Mariners