Astros at Braves
Last play · Vidal Bruján called out on strikes.
Win probability
Braves0%
HOU 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 10 – 0 ATL
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Braves favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Zach Cole homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Jake Meyers scores. (inning 3) — -26% Astros
8Eli White homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Jurickson Profar scores.11–3
6Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (16) on a fly ball to left field.11–1
6Jose Altuve homers (25) on a fly ball to left field.11–0
5Mauricio Dubón singles on a line drive to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Jake Meyers scores. Zach Cole scores.10–0
5Zach Cole singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Christian Walker scores. Jake Meyers to 3rd. Zach Cole to 2nd. Zach Cole advances to 2nd, on a fielding error by right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr.8–0
5Jake Meyers singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jurickson Profar. Victor Caratini scores. Christian Walker to 2nd.7–0
5Astros challenged (catch or drop), call on the field was overturned: Christian Walker singles on a fly ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Carlos Correa scores. Jesús Sánchez scores. Victor Caratini to 3rd.6–0
4Zach Cole singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Christian Walker scores. Jake Meyers to 2nd.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
