Rangers at Mets
Last play · Mark Vientos called out on strikes.
Win probability
Mets0%
TEX 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 6 – 3 NYM
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Mets favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cody Freeman singles on a line drive to right fielder Juan Soto. Josh Jung scores. Alejandro Osuna scores. Jonah Heim to 3rd. (inning 1) — -16% Rangers
7Dylan Moore homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Wyatt Langford scores.8–3
3Pete Alonso out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Alejandro Osuna. Francisco Lindor scores.6–3
3Juan Soto out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Michael Helman. Cedric Mullins scores. Francisco Lindor to 3rd.6–2
3Francisco Alvarez homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.6–1
1Michael Helman doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jonah Heim scores. Cody Freeman scores.6–0
1Cody Freeman singles on a line drive to right fielder Juan Soto. Josh Jung scores. Alejandro Osuna scores. Jonah Heim to 3rd.4–0
1Alejandro Osuna singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Joc Pederson scores. Josh Jung to 2nd.2–0
1Josh Jung singles on a line drive to right fielder Juan Soto. Josh Smith scores. Joc Pederson to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
