Rockies at Padres
Last play · Ryan O'Hearn strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres0%
COL 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 4 – 1 SD
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-2.5
Moneyline
reference+280 / -350
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Padres favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Blaine Crim homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Hunter Goodman scores. Jordan Beck scores. (inning 4) — -38% Rockies
9Ramón Laureano grounds out, second baseman Orlando Arcia to first baseman Blaine Crim. Manny Machado scores. Gavin Sheets to 3rd.4–2
4Kyle Farmer homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.4–1
4Blaine Crim homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Hunter Goodman scores. Jordan Beck scores.3–1
1Manny Machado homers (24) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
